Sensex expect to hit 47000 at the end of the year if majority of BJP in Lok Sabha Election 2019

USNMix Report: 'In majority of BJP in Lok Sabha Election 2019,
then stock market could go up to 47000. Sensex'.

The dates of the Lok Sabha elections have been announced. Polling will start from April 11. On May 23 the results will be in front of everyone. It will be time to decide which will be the next government in the country. But, in terms of market share, Modi government is the only favored one. Global Brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has said in its report that the market wants to be a strong government at the center. The impact of having a strong government at the Center will also affect the Indian stock market. Indeed, the uncertainty of the elections, the situation of tension with Pakistan and the possibility of a trade war between India and America, the market needs a strong foundation.

Boom by announcement of election dates

According to News repor t, after the announcement of the dates of Lok Sabha elections, the stock market has registered a strong rally on Monday. While there was a surge of more than 300 points in the Sensex, the Nifty crossed the 11,000 mark. On Tuesday also the market has made a great start. The Sensex has climbed nearly 500 points. Right now, the Nifty is trading around 11300.

Sensex to reach 47000?

According to Morgan Stanley's report, the Sensex could reach 42,000 level by the end of 2019. At the same time, if there is good speed, then the Sensex is estimated to reach 47000. At the same time, if the market weaknesses, the Sensex could slip to 33,000. However, weakness in the market is possible only when no party receives the majority. If the absolute majority becomes the government then the market will get faster. 

Fall in oil prices

Morgan Stanley has said in its report that due to uncertainty over rising oil prices and general elections due in May of this year, the market has seen a decline in the last few sessions. The report says that this year India's poor performance may be due to rising oil prices and political uncertainty. However, the Global Brokerage believes that the foundation of the Indian stock market is very strong and there is a possibility of strongness in the coming days.

Morgan Stanley had three types of estimates-

Base Case-

Until December 2019, the Sensex can go up to 42,000. Its probability is 50 percent. Year-by-year basis earning growth is estimated to be 21 percent in 2019 and 24 percent in 2020.

Bull case-

If the bull run was introduced in the market, then the market could reach level of 47,000 by the end of the year. Its probability is 30 percent. However, this would be a strong election result and a party getting a majority. Estimated year-on-year basis earning growth of 29 per cent in 2019 and 26 per cent in 2020.

Beer case-

At the same time, in case of beer run the market can go up to 33,000. Its probability is 20 percent. However, it will be possible only if global conditions are bad and election results will not be okay. Earning growth is estimated to be 16 per cent in 2019 and 22 per cent in 2020 year-on-year basis.

These sectors are included in the portfolio

According to the domestic brokerage firm, it is advisable to include IT and healthcare, automotive, capital goods and financial services in its portfolio, looking forward to the situation. Given the recent turmoil in financial markets, it is easy to be pessimistic. The macro approach for India has definitely been somewhat worse than six months ago. But, Outlook remains strong and gives us reasons to be optimistic.